Donnerstag, 21. April 2011

Es ist Iran,…du Dummkopf!

Es ist Iran,…du Dummkopf!

Saudi-Arabien, und im Gefolge sämtliche Emirate am Golf, scheinen gegenüber Iran eine wachsende Wut und Besessenheit, an den Tag zu legen.
Mit schon fast paranoidem Eifer wird Iran für das, in der Arabische Welt, revolutionäre Begehren nach mehr Rechte und Freiheit verantwortlich gemacht. Vor allem die Lage in Bahrain wird mehr und mehr zum Konfrontationspunkt zwischen Saudi-Arabien und Iran.

Am 16. April 2011 publizierte das Wall Street Journal eine längere Analyse über den neuen Kalten Krieg zwischen (Saudi-)Arabien und Iran. Eine direkte militärische Konfrontation wird in Betracht gezogen. Die Analyse sieht Parallele zwischen dem "Prager Frühling" von 1968 und den "arabischen Frühling" von 2011.

Und um diesen Punkt noch etwas zu präzisieren könnte man die Saudische (unterstützt durch militärische Einheiten aus den Emiraten) Intervention in Bahrain am 14. März durchaus mit der sowjetischen Intervention im Sommer 1968 in der damalige Tschechoslowakei vergleichen…..

«Many see a heightened possibility of actual military conflict in the Gulf, where one-fifth of the world's oil supplies traverse the shipping lanes.

»For three months, the Arab world has been awash in protests and demonstrations. It's being called an Arab Spring, harking back to the Prague Spring of 1968. But comparison to the short-lived flowering of protests 40 years ago in Czechoslovakia is turning out to be apt in another way. For all the attention the Mideast protests have received, their most notable impact on the region thus far hasn't been an upswell of democracy. It has been a dramatic spike in tensions between two geopolitical titans, Iran and Saudi Arabia.
»This new Middle East cold war comes complete with its own spy-versus-spy intrigues, disinformation campaigns, shadowy proxy forces, supercharged state rhetoric—and very high stakes. “The cold war is a reality,” says one senior Saudi official. “Iran is looking to expand its influence. This instability over the last few months means that we don't have the luxury of sitting back and watching events unfold.”»

Am 17. April greift Brian M. Downing (Autor und Analytiker der politischen und militärischen Angelegenheiten) in der Asia Times das Thema ebenfalls auf. Er analysiert Saudi-Arabiens Verhalten zum "arabischen Frühling", und die Art wie Arabien systematisch dazu neigt die Aufstände als iranischen Komplott darzustellen.

«The House of Saud's concern with Iran has become a veritable obsession. It can be usefully likened to the obsession US national security institutions had for the Soviet Union during some of the more heated moments of the Cold War when many reformist movements around the world were deemed the machinations of Soviet intelligence officers. A pertinent case in point would be the Central Intelligence Agency's conviction that the popular uprising that unseated the shah was the work of the Soviet KGB.

»Similarly, the House of Saud has badly misinterpreted reform movements both inside the kingdom and throughout the region. The various crowds that assembled peacefully to call for a voice in their future are seen as the nefarious work of Iranian intelligence officers.
»However, there is no evidence of Iranian intelligence personnel in the eastern province of Saudi Arabia, where the kingdom's Shi'ite minority is concentrated, or in neighboring Bahrain, where the Shi'ites constitute 70% of the population. In both countries, Shi'ite and Sunni alike called for social and political change. “No Shi'ite, no Sunni, Just Bahraini.” Neither group needed foreign operatives to tell them that their futures were limited by monarchal cliques or that the Shi'ites were looked down upon and excluded from many parts of public life.»


Quellen: Asia Times und Wall Street Journal